The phasing in of the electric fleet could be a momentous occasion for New Zealand, enabling us to switch from fuel consumption to electric vehicles powered primarily by renewable energy. But the process also comes with a series of economic effects, most notably the need to construct additional sources to power this fleet. In this article we look at what the electric fleet could require from NZ in terms of additional power sources.
First, Discover the Energy Consumed Per Kilometre By an Electric Vehicle
While a Tesla vehicle may or may not represent a good benchmark for electric vehicle energy mileage, we have to start somewhere.
I have taken this information directly from the Tesla forums.
Keep in mind that it does not factor difference in charges per kilometre across different makes and brands.
330 Wh per mile
x 0.6214 convert to kilometres
= 205 Wh per kilometre
Next, Discover the Average Travel Distance Per Driver Per Annum
Assume average drive distance of 10,329 kilometres per year (based on an average of 12,381 kilometres per year for men in NZ and 8,227 kilometres per year for women in NZ).
Then, Discover the Average Number of kWh Consumed Per Electric Car Driver in NZ Per Annum
0.205 kWh per kilometre x 10,329 kilometres per year
= 2117.45 kWh per annum required per driver
About as much as a motel uses during a month in winter.
Now, Find the Total Energy Consumption If 100% of Drivers Switched to Electric
From the same document:
1,412,000 female drivers in NZ
1,447,000 male drivers in NZ
Total 2,859,000 drivers in NZ
2117.45 kWh x 2,859,000 drivers
= 6,053,789,550 kWh or just under 6,054 GWh (over 6 TWh)
Assume 75% of fleet goes electric by 2030
6,053,789,550 x 0.75
= 4,540,342,162.5 kWh or just over 4,540 GWh
Assume 50% of fleet goes electric by 2030
6,053,789,550 x 0.50
= 3,026,894,775 kWh or just under 3,027 GWh
Assume 25% of fleet goes electric by 2030
6,053,789,550 x 0.25
= 1,513,447,387.5 kWh or just over 1,513 GWh
NZ’s Current Electricity Generation & Consumption
According to this Wikipedia article, NZ’s current electricity generation sits at around 42,219 GWh.
In order to accommodate the electric fleet at the lowest of these levels, we would need to expand electricity generation capabilities by at least 3.6%. However, at the high end of the scale (75% switch to electric vehicles), it could be an increase of 10.8%.
To give you some sense of perspective, I’ve recently bought shares in a company that operates wind farms in Palmerston North. The firm has 97 turbines and produces approximately 126 GWh electricity per annum.
In order to support the electric fleet, NZ would need to set up twelve of these windfarms, or approximately 1165 additional turbines. That’s at the lowest level.
One problem with wind powering the electric fleet (as with just about any electric source) is its highly variable short term generation potential. This could result in price spikes and unavailability of renewable energy against a fairly constant consumption model.
One way or another, renewable energy will be an area that could stand to see a lot of investment over the next 10 years.
