This week I wanted to find out what proportion of NZ grown beef and lamb was diverted to domestic consumption relative to the amount that went overseas for export.
Unfortunately, this is a question that involves some mental gymnastics. According to Ben Hancock of Beef + Lamb NZ, the Meat Board Act 2004 removed the necessity for meat companies to report what was diverted from export graded products into the domestic market. This means we have no reliable up to date figures.
For the purpose of this exercise, I will be comparing actual beef and lamb export figures with the estimated “per capita” amount diverted for NZ consumption. As a result the figures will be fairly rough because the data is drawn from two very separate sets of statistics – one reliable, the other merely an estimate.
This information comes from the Compendium of NZ Farm Facts 2017 (41st Edition) provided helpfully by Beef + Lamb NZ.
Beef and Veal Consumption – Domestic vs Export
According to the report, NZ exports 400,586 tonnes of beef per year and 23,024 tonnes of bobby calf (veal) per year for a total of 423,610 tonnes per year.
Based on NZ’s current population of 4,596,000, and an estimated annual per capita consumption of beef and veal of 28kg, this equates to 128,688 tonnes of beef and veal consumed domestically within NZ per year.
Based on these figures, this would work out to around 23% of total beef and veal produced in NZ being consumed domestically, and 77% being exported.
Lamb Consumption – Domestic vs Export
According to the report, NZ exports 303,500 tonnes of lamb per year.
Based on NZ’s current population of 4,596,000, and an estimated annual per capita consumption of lamb of 7.5kg, this equates to 34,470 tonnes of lamb consumed domestically within NZ per year.
Assuming these figures are correct, this would work out to around 10% of total lamb produced in NZ being consumed domestically, and 90% being exported.
Impact on NZ’s National Carbon Emissions
The reason I wanted to figure this out was because I wanted to get an idea of what impact changing dietary habits within NZ could realistically have on our national carbon emissions.
As we all know, agriculture produces around 48% of national carbon emissions. Our economy has largely been built on the back of successful beef and lamb production, primarily for export.
So let’s try to find out what impact it would have on NZ’s national carbon emissions if domestic beef and lamb consumption stopped entirely. This will involve some assumptions.
First, let’s calculate the total of domestic consumption (amounts in tonnes)
128,688
- 34,470
163,158
Next, let’s calculate the total amount of each meat type produced within NZ by adding the amount for domestic consumption with the amount for international export for both beef and lamb (amounts in tonnes)
552,298
- 337,970
890,268
Next, we divide the amount consumed domestically by the total amount produced within NZ to get the overall percentage of meat diverted for domestic consumption vs the total produced.
163,158 / 890,268
= 18.32%
The total amount of national greenhouse gas emissions that result from agriculture is 48%. Because beef and lamb are such heavy emitters, let’s assume that 75% of national emissions result from production of these two meats.
0.48
x0.75
0.36
We then multiply the estimated amount of carbon emissions attributable to beef and lamb production by the percentage reduction in beef in lamb production if domestic consumption stopped totally.
0.36
x0.1832
6.592%
It looks like even if every person in New Zealand went vegetarian (not a likely scenario), the net result would be a decrease in NZ’s national emissions by around 6.6%. While a 6.6% cut to national emissions might not sound like much, the effect it would have on our Paris Agreement obligations would be enormous, because the Paris Agreement obligations are measured in net emissions, not gross emissions.
What you would be relying on in order to meet our 2030 or 2050 Paris Agreement targets would be not only a huge change in dietary preferences within NZ, but also a huge change in dietary preferences internationally. The result of which would likely be devastating for our economy unless farmers found alternate products to sell.
So it just seems like our Paris Agreement targets have put us between a rock and a hard place.
Conclusion
NZ is on track to fall short of its Paris Agreement obligations by 218 million tonnes of carbon by 2030. The result of our continuous upwards trajectory in carbon emissions are likely to be so damaging that the cost of importing international carbon credits could bankrupt the country by 2050.
In the past we’ve looked at the growing vegan food market which is being driven in part by climate consciousness and animal welfare consciousness.
For the majority of New Zealanders, persuading them to go vegan for the sake of the country is probably a hard sell. The effect of which is that the NZ Government will be billions of dollars out of pocket by the time 2030 comes around, and no doubt taxpayers and wage earners will foot the bill through higher taxes and inflation.
