A few weeks ago I wrote an article about the amount of beef and lamb consumed domestically compared with international exports. The article involved much mathematics but was still insufficient to slake my number nerd thirst – so this week I have written an article that calculates the value that an average vegan will save the NZ Government by the year 2050.
The costs applied are based on NZ’s obligations under the Paris Agreement. Under the Paris Agreement NZ is likely to fall short of our obligations by around 218 million tonnes of carbon emitted by 2030. I have extrapolated this out to our even more aggressive 2050 targets and guesstimated that by 2050 we will likely have fallen short of our Paris target by over 900 million tonnes of carbon.
Of course, I make no claim that my maths are 100% accurate. You should do your own math and feel free to correct me on any of the points I have offered here. Which you will no doubt do, since it’s the Internet.
One thing worth bearing in mind is that I have used the word “vegan” – however the math is based on any person who simply avoids beef and lamb for the next 33 years. This is all to the good and provides a margin of safety in my estimations, as there may potentially be additional savings that a vegan could offer.
A Roy Morgan Poll has shown that vegetarianism is on the rise, with over 10.3% of people in NZ stating that they live on a vegetarian diet. This is only relevant to our numbers in that it shows us what percentage of the NZ population are non-vegetarian.
Current population of NZ = 4,693,000
Population of NZ who are non-vegetarian = (100%-10.3%) – 89.7%
Non-vegetarian population = 4,209,621
Our previous article demonstrated that if the entire population of NZ ceased to consume beef or lamb, the impact this would have on our gross national carbon emissions would be around a 6.6% reduction (6.592% to be precise).
While this may not sound like much, the impact it would have on our net carbon emissions, and hence the cost of importing international carbon credit units to meet our Paris Agreement obligations, would be significant, because the targets are based on net emissions, not on gross emissions.
So therefore next we will calculate the impact that a 6.592% reduction in gross emissions would have on our net emissions for our 2030 and 2050 Paris Agreement targets.
2030 Paris Agreement targets
Our Paris Agreement 2030 target requires a cut of 11.2% on 1990 level carbon emissions.
2014 Gross Emissions = 81.1 million tonnes of carbon
2014 Net Emissions = 56.69 million tonnes of carbon
Annual Net Emissions Target for the Years 2020 to 2030 = 32.77 million tonnes of carbon
Annual Net Emissions Shortfall = 23.92 million tonnes of carbon
Total shortfall over 10 years = 239.3 million tonnes of carbon
Adjusted to allow for population growth and other factors = 249 million tonnes of carbon
Estimated emissions reduction from all sectors = 31 million tonnes of carbon
Estimated shortfall = 218 million tonnes of carbon
Impact of 6.592% reduction on Gross Emissions (Annually) = 5.35 million tonnes of carbon reduced annually
Total over 10 years = 53.5 million tonnes of carbon reduced
This would reduce our total shortfall from 249 million tonnes of carbon down to 195.5 million tonnes of carbon
Minus 31 million tonnes of carbon from other sector forecast reductions = 164.5 million tonnes of carbon
Percentage of emissions shortfall reduced = 24.54%
In other words, a reduction of gross carbon emissions by 6.592% due to everybody in New Zealand stopping eating beef and lamb products would take us 24.54% of the way towards meeting our 2030 Paris Agreement targets.
How much would this save us in taxpayer dollars?
According to an internal Government document, the cost of buying international carbon credits in order to meet our 2030 Paris Agreement targets is likely to come to $14.2 billion NZD.
If we reduce our carbon emissions target reduction shortfall by 24.54% before 2030, this would equate to $3.48 billion of national savings.
Dividing the amount of $3.48 billion by the number of number of remaining non-vegetarians in NZ (4,209,621) equals $826.67.
On that basis, the average amount saved by each new vegan, vegetarian, or non-beef and non-dairy consumer in NZ would be $826.67 by 2030. Just in reducing the cost of importing international carbon credits to meet our shortfall.
But wait – there’s more. This amount of money is literally nothing when we compare it with the amount that vegans will save NZ by the time 2050 rolls around.
Let’s repeat the same exercise over again, but this time apply it to… dun dun dun… our
2050 Paris Agreement targets.
Our Paris Agreement 2050 target requires a cut of 50% on 1990 level carbon emissions.
Our track record so far has been abysmal. During the years where we were supposed to be cutting emissions, we were in fact increasing them. Gross emissions from 1990 to 2014 went up 23.2% and net emissions went up 54%. Smooth move, Exlax.
2050 Projected Gross Emissions = Anybody’s bloody guess, but potentially somewhere around 112.46 million tonnes of carbon
Average Gross Emissions for the years 2031 to 2050 = 106.19 million tonnes of carbon
Projected average annual net carbon emissions across years 2031-2050 = 71.62 million tonnes
Average Annual Net Emissions Target for the Years 2030 to 2050 = 25.64 million tonnes of carbon
Annual Net Emissions Shortfall = 45.98 million tonnes of carbon
Total shortfall over 20 years = 919.6 million tonnes of carbon
Impact of 6.592% reduction on Gross Emissions (Annually) = 7 million tonnes of carbon reduced annually
Total over 20 years = 140 million tonnes of carbon reduced
This would reduce our total shortfall from 919.6 million tonnes of carbon down to 779.6 million tonnes of carbon
Percentage of emissions shortfall reduced = 15.22%
In other words, a reduction of gross carbon emissions by 6.592% due to everybody in New Zealand stopping eating beef and lamb products would take us 15.22% of the way towards meeting our 2050 Paris Agreement targets
Admittedly the above figures exclude emissions reductions from other sources, because there are no existing Government forecasts for these over the time period leading up to 2050.
How much would this save us in taxpayer dollars?
My estimated cost of importing international carbon credits to meet our 2050 Paris Agreement obligations (reasoning supplied in the linked article) = $145.3 billion NZD
If we reduce our carbon emissions target reduction shortfall by 15.22% before 2050, this would equate to $22.11 billion of national savings.
Dividing the amount of $22.11 billion by the number of number of remaining non-vegetarians in NZ (4,209,621, and assuming that the rate of vegetarianism grows in line with the growth of population up to 2050) equals $5252.25.
Add the two figures together, and you have the value of a vegan over the next 33 years:
$826.67 + $5252.25 = $6078.92
That’s how much each vegan, vegetarian, or non-beef and non-dairy consumer would save the NZ Government merely by reducing the cost of having to import international carbon credits by 2050.
Pretty grim scenario (real life usually is) but it shows you how if everyone in NZ switched away from eating beef and lamb, it might actually save us from national bankruptcy.
Also that the marginal value of each extra vegan, vegetarian, or non-beef and non-lamb consumer is pretty darn high.
Mayhaps that should be the basis of some of our policy decisions?
So next time you meet a vegan, don’t just thank them. Remember to cut them a cheque.
Balance Transfers – doing the math for the sake of NZ.
